Tour de France 2024: Who's Going To Win?

Every year, the Tour de France guarantees one thing: there are no guarantees. But despite the fact that any number of variables can affect the outcome of the race, we've still outlined the key riders to keep an eye on over the next month.

The lead-up to this Tour de France has been turbulent for every top contender… except for Team UAE’s Tadej Pogačar. The two-time Tour winner started the season aiming to become the first rider since 1998 to win both the Giro d’Italia and the Tour in the same year. Initially, some might have doubted even Pogi’s capacity over two such gruelling events, but he beat his rivals at the Giro with such ease – finishing almost 10 minutes ahead of second place – it now seems a distinct possibility. He is indeed the bookmakers’ favourite and has a strong squad, including Spanish prodigy Juan Ayuso, to back him up. It will be fascinating to see if he can last the course and his gamble for greatness pays off.

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His bid has been helped by the poor luck of main rivals including defending champion Jonas Vingegaard (Visma–Lease a Bike), who suffered seriously in a horrible crash at the Itzulia Basque Country race in April. Having not raced since, his readiness remains an unknown quantity - even though he will be part of the Grand Depart in Florence.

Pogačar’s fellow Slovenian Primož Roglič (BORA–hansgrohe) and Soudal–Quickstep’s Remco Evenepoel were also caught in that same Itzulia crash, but less badly injured, and they are the other main challengers for the podium. However, at the recent Critérium du Dauphiné stage race, Roglič – even though he won – crashed again and did not look in top form. As for Evenepoel, this is his debut Tour de France, and with 59km / 36.7 mi of time trials, he will hope to show well. But his climbing ability is not proven at this level, and he might find himself isolated and lacking team support in the hills.

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Elsewhere, there’s Ineos Grenadiers’ Egan Bernal, who’ll be hoping to confirm his own return from long-term injury. And there are a lot of promising Anglo-Saxon riders, not least his team-mate Tom Pidcock. Visma–Lease a Bike’s Matteo Jorgenson will be a key lieutenant in Vingegaard’s yellow jersey campaign – or will Jorgenson step up to become team leader if Vingegaard is found lacking?

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Meanwhile, the Canadian Derek Gee (Israel–Premier Tech) had a great Dauphiné, taking an unexpected podium place, and he will be vying with EF Education–EasyPost’s young Irishman Ben Healy for a top-ten finish and to poach stages in the mountains. And will Bahrain–Victorious’s British puncheur Fred Wright finally get that breakaway win he’s been threatening for a few years?

All this will soon become clearer. And no doubt the world’s greatest cycle race will throw us some epic storylines of its own.